At The Supreme Court of King Donald

Posted on April 3, 2025 by davidsberry

“There is no limit to the amount of good you can do if you don’t care who gets the credit.”—Ronald Reagan 40th President of the USA

This week Trump brliebes he has anvhotrf hid place in history by ctrstimg ‘`Libreration DayAs The freewheeling circus that is the Trump presidency continues to inspire and appall, depending on how serious your stance is on democracy, he sis livingMark Zuckerberg’s mantra: “Move fast and break things”. In its 236 years in existence, the United States have chosen a broad spectrum among its citizens to lead them. With the sole proviso that they had to have been born there, the 40+ men who have held the post ranged from slave owners, through war heroes, to a black man; there have been farmers, industrialists, an actor, and even a hangman. Some lost office through defeat, a few through impeachment; some were shot; a few died in harness. Almost all discharged their office with dignity and humanity, paying due attention to the principles upon which the country was conceived by the “Founding Fathers”. These were enshrined in high-minded documents: the Declaration of Independence; the Constitution; the Bill of Rights.

Donald Trump, the 45th president, who recently became the 47th holder of that office finds little time for such niceties, as he is in too much of a hurry to permit tradition, custom, or principled opposition to slow him down in leading the MAGA crusade. For all the reverent lip service paid to them, the high standards and ideals of the Founding Fathers are not standing­ in his way. 

After completing two months of his second term, Trump is hitting his stride in a style reminiscent of his abrasively autocratic manner honed during countless bank-busting property deals and episodes of “The Apprentice”.

He never went for broke on this scale during his first term; in 2017, he appointed qualified members to his cabinet, who largely tried to do their jobs. This brought conflict with Trump’s ire need for unquestioning obedience and, consequently, his ire. Most quickly found themselves out on their ear and replaced by pliant temporaries. This time round, he avoided such public spats by staffing his Cabinet from a coterie of loyal, but poorly qualified, acolytes who had all drunk deep from the MAGA Kool-Aid. 

This time, more than in his first term, Trump is pulling no punches. Convinced that the entire US government apparatus is rife with corruption, inefficiencies and entrenched opposition to his radical agenda, he   has armed Elon Musk and his fiscal vigilantes at the “Department for Government Efficiency” = “D.O.G.E.” with an an open brief and an arsenal of sharp machetes, with which they are laying about departments of State with a will.

Recent `Truth Social posts, emanating from the White House, have touched on many issues. Instead of much-anticipated tax cuts for the rich, focus was on populist memes highlighted during the November’s election: tariffs; undocumented immigrants; bureaucracy, as well as his trademark unpredictability.

Once DOGE machete-wielders started hacking at the Social Security Administration (SSA), District Judge Ellen Lipton Hollander blocked them from accessing data and ordering them to destroy copies of any personal information they have already accessed. “The DOGE team is essentially engaged in a fishing expedition at SSA”.

The Trump administration upped the ante in their bid to disable opponents of its wholesale destruction of the United States government organise to stop them. Eveb as was going on, District Judge Ellen Lipton Hollander block the Department of Government Efficiency from accessing data at the Social Security Administration and ordering them to destroy copies of any personal information they have already accessed. “The DOGE Team is essentially engaged in a fishing expedition at SSA, in search of a fraud epidemic, based on little more than suspicion,” Hollander wrote. “It has launched a search for the proverbial needle in the haystack, without any concrete knowledge that the needle actually exists in that haystack.

“We become not a melting pot but a beautiful mosaic. Different people, different beliefs, different yearnings, different hopes, different dreams.”—Jimmy Carter 39th President of the USA

To deport supposed “criminals and terrorists” hiding among the public, Trump reached back to 1798 for authority to expel five people he claims are members of a Venezuelan gang. Trump invoked the 227-year-old Alien Enemies Act as his legal justification for the deportations. This Act was made as part of the “Alien and Sedition Acts. Federalists in Congress passed the laws during what is known as the “Quasi-War” with France during the French Revolution, when it appeared that members of their political opposition in the U.S. were working to destabilise the U.S. government’s foreign policy of neutrality and overthrow this position to help in their war with Britain.

Several dozen “undesirables were rounded up and herded onto two planes heading for prisons in El Salvador. Hearing of that this had apparently been done without due process, a federal judge, James Boasberg issued an order halting the deportations.

“The government evaded its obligations, “providing only general information about the flights and appearing to cast about for excuses to justify further delay.

“It is a paradox that every dictator has climbed to power on the ladder of free speech. Immediately on attaining power each dictator has suppressed all free speech, except his own.”—Herbert Hoover 31stPresident of the USA

Judge Boasberg disagreed that the 1798 law was legal justification and demanded the flights be stopped. The administration declined to comply, arguing the flights were already in international airspace off the Yucatan. This triggered bad-tempered responses from the administration.

Following up on his earlier judgement, that the government could not use the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to justify sending migrants to a prison in El Salvador, U.S. District Judge James Boasberg appeared to lose patience with the government’s obfuscation of what actually happened in that rendition. He repeatedly asked for, but failed to get information about the flights.

“This is woefully insufficient,” Boasberg wrote, requiring the government to explain by March 25th its failure to return the flights as ordered did not violate the court order to do so.

“I believe Boasberg is attempting to meddle in national security. This one federal judge thinks he can control foreign policy for the entire country, and he cannot.”—Pam Bondi, Attorney General of the United States

“Judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate powers,”—Elon Musk.

It is the role of courts to determine whether or not the power the executive is claiming is, in fact, legitimate—Supreme Court Chair, Justice John Roberts

Far from backing down, the administration responded with typical vehemence when opposed—by considering escalating its dispute with the courts.

Trump has described Judge Boasberg as a “moron” and called for him to be impeached and, accusing him of “trying to usurp the presidency”. 

In response, US Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts issued a rare admonishment, pointing out that “impeachment is an inappropriate response”. Appointed by George “Dubya” Bush, Roberts is not one of the supposed “pinko lefties” so despised by Trump and his acolytes. Ever ready to back up her boss, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt repeated Trump’s disparagement of Boasberg. Arm candy of the type Trump favours and wed to a rich developer 32 years her senior, she rivals Russia’s Lavrov, as a faithful mouthpiece for the Master. Suffice to say, she exhibits none of the calibre of C.J. Cregg.

Trump has presented himself as the arch-dealmaker who could cut the Gordian knot of wars in Gaza and Ukraine, this is where the most effort has been applied to date, with scant progress to show for it. Apart from some high-profile phone calls, all that has happened is the Israelis have broken a fragile Gaza ceasefire and extended their war to multiple fronts across the region.

Ukraine’s integrity has been hazarded for not one single concession by the Russians and an opportunity for international grandstanding for Trump. Even the supposed “infrastructure ceasefire” Trump touted after a Kremlin phone call proved as transient as any other Putin promise. It seems that Trump admires Putin as a fellow tough negotiator, and will concede almost anything that costs America little, and offers Trump public plaudits, no matter who gets thrown to the wolves—Allies included.

Trump’s “base” has proved to be amazingly resilient, and much wider than a few oligarchs keen on deeper tax cuts for themselves. Polls suggest his radical actions to date broadly meet with approval. This includes many among the 70 million recipients of SSA benefits, threatened by DOGE’s brutal purge. (Americans of many political stripes share Trump’s pathological mistrust of government establishments)

“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little”—Franklin D. Roosevelt 32nd President of the USA

Trump’s “base” includes many from the poorest strata of society—exactly those with most to lose, should the long-standing Republican mantra to gut “Obamacare” ever succeed.

“I feel sorry for our country, as it shows that partisan politicians, who think of nothing higher than their own interests, We cannot stand so corrupt a government for any great length of time”—Teddy Roosevelt 26thPresident of the USA

The attack by Trump and his MAGA supporters on the courts and the rule of law has illustrated how quickly the United States is sliding from democracy to authoritarianism. 

“Honest to God, I’ve never seen anything like it,”—Steven Levitsky, Harvard political scientist (in the New York Times)

“I don’t care what the judges think.”—US “Border Czar” Tom Homan

“It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their own selfish purposes.”—Andrew Jackson, 7th President of the USA

“I feel sorry for the country, as this shows the power of partisan politicians, who think of nothing higher than their own interests. We cannot stand so corrupt a government for any length of time.” —Teddy Roosevelt 26th President of the USA

“The current rate of tariffs is a vicious, inequitable & illogical source of additional taxation, allowing manufacturers protected by these tariffs to make immense profits. If these were lowered, the necessities of life would be greatly cheapened”—Grover Cleveland 24th President of the USA

“We are given power not to advance our own purposes, nor to make a great show in the world, nor a name. There is but one just use of power, and it is to serve the people.”—George W. Bush 43rd President of the USA

In October last year, The Economist ran a special report on America’s economy, which was “the envy of the world.” This week, stock markets plummeted after Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports to the United States, with higher rates on about 60 countries he claims engage in “unfair trade practices”, including China, Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea, as well as the European Union.

Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over1,000 points,falling by 2.5%, while the the S&P 500 dropped 3.6%.Trump’s erratic approach to the US economy had already rattled markets around the world, which dropped significantly in the first quarter of this year. US consumer confidence, which recently hit a twelve-year low. Trump waited until the US stock market had closed today before he announced the new tariffs in a speech in the White House Rose Garden, claiming “For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike. This ‘Liberation Day, tariffs would create “the golden age of America.”

Trump seems to believe tariffs raised under McKinley at the turn of the 20th © ptobide a model. But they undermined industry and impovrtished farmers and the Smoot-Hawley Act that followed led to the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Depression that followed.

“Never before has an hour of Presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much. The best estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now [close] to $30 trillion or $300,000 per family of four. Trump Tariff Tax is the largest peacetime tax hike in U.S. history.” —former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers

Giveb his belief in his own omniscience, Trump would do well to absorb the hard-won wisdom of his predecessors before the America he woulf make great again goes the way of other empires fsllen under the spell of dictators

#1114—2,084 words

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A BRACE of FUDGE-IT BUDGETS

Posted on October 29, 2024 by davidsberry

“It’s time to embrace the harsh light of fiscal reality”—Kier Starmer, Monday, October 28th 2024

Febrile media speculation surrounding this Wednesday’s UK budget has been deafening. Starting with what Rachel Reeves, new Chancellor in a new labour, as opposed to New Labour, government’s “discovery” of a £20 billion ‘black hole’ in the country’s finances, speculation how she might fill it has been rife. She blames difficulties on “fifteen years of Tory mismanagement.”

The shortfall between government income and expenditure has multiple explanations, not least, the cost of Covid, on which an unbudgeted £200 billion was spent, partly on unusable PPE provided by the likes of Michelle Mone’s husband and partly on a non-functional Test-and-Trace system costing £40 billion, run by government darling Dido Harding.

The collapse of major businesses, like Carillion, Thomas Cook and Debenham’s, as well as Brexit effects on exporters have all hit Treasury tax income. Similarly, a rumoured 2% rise in employer NI contribution, seen by business as a “tax on jobs

 that willl stifle growth”.

There have been warnings trailed for months about how tight cash is. Jeremy Hunt’s pre-election giveaway of cutting 4% from worker NIC clearly did not woek.With such a huge majority, after 15 years, Labour supporters expect to see a Labour budget. Rather than any populist giveaway we can expect the NHS and Education to receive boosts. But, if taxes are expected to cover outlay, expect cuts in other areas and pity already-strapped councils. The asset value of any HS2 connection from Old Oak Common into central London is debatable. 

Some creative accounting will claim that borrowing to cover investment in infrastructure produces assets to offset debt incurred. The UK went £16.5 billion deeper into debt through borrowings made in September. Interest payments on existing debt peaked at £2 billion paid  in June. While avoiding a Truss/Kwartang-style panic in financial markets, such borrowing will increase bond interest rates paid and lead to higher mortgage payments. UK Bond yields have grown from 3.7% to 4.2% in the last year.  Such fiscal policies may not herald disaster but are unlikely to lead to the growth in GDP and tax take hoped for, unless the UK develops some brilliant products for which the world beats a path to its door. Beyond fintech and Rolls Royce, Brit sin can boast of few other world-beaters.

A similarly dubious situation faces Shona Robison in preparing a budget for the Scottish government on December 4th. To date, economic performance has been sluggish, with councils forced into austerity while spending on notorious shibboleths like still-incomplete ferries at Ferguson’s, or dualling the A9. While tourism remains strong and whisky exports stable around £4 billion, world-beating developments are nowhere in evidence. While the Danes have cornered the wind turbine market, an equivalent Scottish dominance in tidal energy remains unfulfilled. Meantime, once-strong seafood and deli exports have been decimated by post-Brexit bureaucracy.

Rather than exploiting commercial opportunities, and thus tax take, the Scottish government seems focussed on increasing voter giveaways, like free bus travel for youths and asylum-seekers under consideration. These would add to free prescriptions and student fees, plus free personal care and travel for pensioners already in place.

Underperformance in the Scottish NHS may be addressed through their proposed Scottish Care, peoposed to represent around 350 organisations, which totals almost 900 individual services, delivering residential care, nursing care, day care, care at home and housing support services.

Scottish Care faces resistance from both councils and unions, expected to implement this. Joint Boards set up to provide integrated care and avoid bed-blocking have proved ineffectual in breaking down ‘bunker mentality’ of jealously guarded control and budgets and deliver effective joint working.

Citing continued effects of Brexit, the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the cost-of-living crisis, alongside UK Government spending decisions, echoing Starmer, Finance Secretary Shona Robison said “difficult decisions were required.”

On September 3rd, Robson madea revision to the current 24/25 budget claiming total savings, worth up to £500 million to include:

  • Implementing emergency spending controls across the public sector, particularly targeting recruitment, overtime, travel and marketing
  • Ending the ScotRail Peak Fares pilot
  • Mirroring the UK Government’s policy to means test Winter Fuel Payment
  • Making additional savings across portfolios, including in sustainable and active travel and in health and social care

Ms Robson is planning to use £460 million of additional ScotWind revenue to address in-year pressures in 2024-25.

Decisions already taken were unlikely to contribute to the Chancellor’s avowed intent of growth in GDP. As an example, February’s decision by Housing Minister Paul McLennan to cut £196 million (26%) from the affordable housing budget means fewer jobs in construction across Scotland, stilling over 1,800 new affordable homes. This means an inability to house migrant workers the economy needs in agriculture, hospitality and skilled labour.

The way fiscal reality stands, Ms Robson will have trouble persuading any other Scottish party to support her minority budget. With its stonking majority, Ms Reeves’ party will face no such problem. But the question whether either will stimulate their respective ecotones in the right direction appears moot.

Both budgets are shaping up to be political fudges. Neither seem likely to achieve their professed long-term goal.

#1113—872 words

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Can the GOP Survive Trump?

Posted on October 26, 2024 by davidsberry

With only ten days of media orgy of the US election to go, the finely balanced contest is making many people both there, and in the rest of the word(except autocrats like Orban, Maduram Putin,L Lukashenko and their like) nervous at the prospect of a second Trump term, They have good reason.

Trump’s threat to use the US military on “the enemy within” contravenes federal law. General John Kelly and other members of Trump’s administration say he is a fascist, and fed growing concern that Trump’s re-election could spark a deadly conflict between the Trump loyalist MAGA wing of the Republicans (a.k.a. Grand Old Party = GOP) and those they perceive as their enemies. They have many, not all of whom are Democrats.

At the same time, there has effectively been a civil war within the Republican Party. Trump recently boasted that he had “taken the Republican Party and made it into an entirely different party/ The Republican Party is a very big, powerful party. Historically, it was an elitist party with real stiffs running it.”

Trump’s analysis of his effect on the party is right. In 2015, the party had for years been controlled by a small group of leaders who wanted to pare government back  in size and activity to that of the years before the 1930s, slashing regulations on business and cutting social security provision., allowing for cuts in taxes. Their numbers were small, so to stay in power, they relied on the votes of the racist and sexist reactionaries who didn’t like civil rights.

Once he had taken office in 2017, Trump put the base of the party in the driving seat. Using the same techniques that had boosted Hungarian prime minister Orbán, he attacked immigrants, black Americans, and other people of colour, promising to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision protecting abortion rights. After his defence of the participants in the August 2017 Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, he began to turn his followers into a movement by encouraging them to engage in violence.

In the following years, Trump’s hold on his voting base enabled him to take over the Republican Party and push older Republican establishment figures aside. In March 2024 he took over the Republican National Committee by installing a loyalist and his own daughter-in-law Lara Trump at its head, directing its finances to benefit himself.

But while older leaders were happy to use Trump’s base to keep the party in power, the two factions were never in sync. Established Republican leaders’ goal was to preside over a largely unregulated market-driven economy. But MAGA Republicans want a weak government only with regard to foreign enemies—another place where they part company with established Republicans. Instead, they want a strong government to impose religious rules. Rather than leaving companies alone to react to markets, they want them to shape their businesses around MAGA ideology, such as denying LGBTQ+ rights. 

By 2024, such tensions had grown. Trump’s promise to build a tariff wall around the country contradicts established Republicans’ belief in free trade. His vow to deport 20 million could devastate entire sectors of the economy. Both plans are widely condemned by economists. Recently, twenty-three Nobel Prize-winning economists have warned that Trump’s economic plans would “lead to higher prices, larger deficits, and greater inequality.”  Trump’s plans risk cutting the gross domestic product in the U.S. by an estimated 8.9%, creating a recession if not  a depression. 

MAGA Republicans are fiercely loyal to Trump, but it is not clear how much they offer to those trying to get elected in more moderate districts. Extremist abortion bans have fired up significant opposition to Republican candidates, and that opposition does not appear to be weakening. Otherwise, the government would be involved in it. And if the government’s involved, that means the police and the district attorney are involved in medical decisions, which seems crazy!” 

“He is putting women’s reproductive health at risk; some women have died already because of this…. What’s happening with women right now is real, and it is playing out across America.”

MAGA extremists in the House of Representatives did the party as a whole no favors when they took control of the chamber in 2023 and made it virtually impossible for the Republicans to govern. Party members took weeks to agree on a House speaker and then threw him out, marking the first time in U.S. history that a party has thrown out its own speaker. With MAGA extremists unwilling to compromise on their demands, the Republicans were unable to pass almost any legislation at all, including appropriations bills and the long-overdue farm bill. 

Their determination not to yield an inch continues. A Trump-endorsed Republican candidate challenging a Democrat incumbent in New York could not name a single Democrat she would be willing to work with if she is elected. “These people are not fit to govern,” House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York posted recently.

Had-core MAGA Republicans, like Marjorie Taylor Green are already intentening to expand their disruptive power in the House, should Republicans retain control over it: Ohio representative Jim Jordan appears to be considering making a bid for House leadership, while others have their eye on committee chairs. Joe Perticone of The Bulwarkexplored today how “Trump’s loyalists feel obliged to defend everything he does, even when his former White House chief of staff says “he is a fascist”.
 

But the struggle between Republican factions has not gone away, as evidence mounts that Trump will not be able to continue to lead the party. Reportedly, 230 doctors have declared, “Trump is falling concerningly short of any standard of fitness for high office and displaying alarming characteristics of declining acuity,” they wrote. After that, 233 mental health professionals, organised by a conservative PAC warned that “Trump appears to be showing signs of cognitive decline that urgently cry out for a full neurological work-up,” and “his malignant narcissism makes him grossly unfit for leadership.

But if Trump’s grip is slipping, who will take over the party? 

In a new biography of Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, McConnell condemns the MAGA movement and blame Trump for making it hard for the Republican Party to compete. He decribes Trump as “not very smart, irascible, nasty and  just about every quality you would not want somebody to have.”

Trump loyalist Senator Mike Lee from Utah has declared himself “shocked that McConnell would attack a fellow Republican senator and the Republican nominee for president just two weeks out from an election”.

Technology elites are pouring money into Trump’s campaign. However, the Wall Street Journal reports that billionaire Elon Musk, who is backing Trump’s campaign with daily million-dollar giveaways, plus tens of millions in fumdimg, has been in regular contact with Putin since late 2022, discussing  ‘personal topics, business and geopolitical tensions.” 

Musk’s SpaceX operates the Starlink satellite system, which won a $1.8 billion contract with US military and intelligence agencies in 2021. It is the major rocket launcher for NASA and the Pentagon, and Musk has a security clearance; he says is “top-secret”.

Musk appears to be making a play for control of the Republican Party, challenging both the established Republicans and the MAGA loyalists.

The Republican voters themselves are abandoning MAGA Republicans, State senator Rob Cowles of Green Bay, WI, who has served almost 42 years, has announced he would vote for Democrat Kamala Harris. David Holt, the Republican mayor of Oklahoma City, OK, also indicated he would be casting his ballot for Harris.

You don’t need to be a Democrat or a Harris supporter to see what dangers for democracy in the USA and across the world, created by Trump and machinations he has spawned pose.

Despite all the above, the bad news is: Kamala Harris is losing much of the momentum she built after she re[;aced President Biden as the Democrat candiddate.

#1112—1,320 words

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Trumping All Over the Actualité

Posted on September 8, 2024 by davidsberry

At a small rally in rural Wisconsin, The Donald appears to have lost both the  plot and his audience with a blistering rant that bore little resemblance to truth, and left even MAGA adherent at sixes and sevens when he suddenly asserted “When I took office in 2017, military officers told him the U.S. had given all the military’s ammunition away to allies.” Then he went on a tirade  against US allies, saying “ they’re only our allies when they need something and that they would never come to our aid if we needed them.”This echoes the talking points put out by Russian operatives. This statement flies in the face of the fact that the one time the North Atlantic Treaty Organization invoked the mutual defense clause was in response to September 11, 2001 attacks on the US. 

As to policy, he embraced Project 2025’s promise to eliminate the Department of Education and send education back to the states so that right-wing figures like Wisconsin’s Senator Ron Johnson can run it. He reiterated the MAGA claim that mothers are executing their babies after birth—this is completely bonkers—and again echoed Russian talking points when he went on: “We did a great thing when we got Roe v. Wadeout of the federal government.” 

These executions are rezlly happening, but nobody talks about it.”— Senator Ron Johnson

Trump reiterated the complete fantasy that schools are performing gender-affirming surgery on children. “Can you imagine you’re a parent and your son leaves the house and you say, Jimmy, I love you so much, go have a good day at school, and your son comes back with a brutal operation. Can you even imagine this? What the hell is wrong with our country?”Trump’s suggestion that schools are performing surgery on students is bananas. This is simply not a thing that happens. 

And then he went full-blown apocalyptic, attacking immigrants and claiming that crime, which in reality has dropped dramatically since he left office after a spike during his own term, has made the U.S. uninhabitable. He said that “If I don’t win Colorado, it will be taken over by migrants and the governor will be sent fleeing.” “Migrants and crime are here in our country at levels never thought possible before…. You’re not safe even sitting here, to be honest with you. I’m the only one that’s going to get it done. Everybody is saying that.” He urged people to protest “because you’re being overrun by criminals.” 

He assured attendees that “If you think you have a nice house, have a migrant enjoy your house, because a migrant will take it over. A migrant will take it over. It will be Venezuela on steroids.” He reiterated his plan to get rid of migrants. “And you know, getting them out will be a bloody story.” 

He went on to try to rev up supporters in words very similar to those he used on January 6th, 2021, but focused on this election. “Every citizen who’s sick and tired of the parasitic political class in Washington that sucks our country of its blood and treasure, November fifth will be your liberation day. November fifth, this year, will be the most important day in the history of our country because we’re not going to have a country anymore if we don’t win.” 

He promised: “I will prevent World War III, and I am the only one that can do it. I will prevent World War III. And if I don’t win this election,… Israel is doomed…. Israel will be gone…. I’d better win!” 

“I better win or you’re gonna have problems like we’ve never had. We may have no country left. This may be our last election. You want to know the truth? People have said that. This may be our last election…. It’ll all be over, and you gotta remember…. Trump is always right. I hate to be right. I’m always right.” 

Trump’s hellscape is only in his mind: crime is sharply down in the U.S. since he left office, migrant crossings have plunged, and the economy is the strongest in the world.

Trump posted on his social media site a rant asserting that “I will win the 2024 election but that expect Democrats to cheat, and “when I win, those people that CHEATED will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the Law, which will include long term prison sentences so that this Depravity of Justice does not happen again. We cannot let our Country further devolve into a Third World Nation, and we WON’T! Please beware that this legal exposure extends to Lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters, & Corrupt Election Officials. Those involved in unscrupulous behavior will be sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our Country.” 

Is it the Justice Department indictments that showed Russia is working to get him re-re-elected? Is it the rising popularity of Democratic nominees Kamala Harris and Tim Walz? Is it fury at the new grand jury’s indicting him for his attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election and install himself in power? Is it fear of Tuesday’s debate with Harris? Is it a declining ability to grapple with reality?

One of the two parties that dominate the largest economy think this man would make a good President and “Leader of the Free World”.

Like the rational half of the Amrtican population: Be afraid; be very afraid!

No. 1111; 907 words

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Queenmaker

Posted on April 28, 2024 by davidsberry

A week may be a long time in politics, but 48 hours can seem almost as long. It may be churlish to blame Humza Yousaf for taking a claw hammer to what had seemed to be his imperturbable administration. But, decent and sincere as he may be, this car crash was in the offing for months from the way he was driving.

First Ministers can stamp their authority on an administration, as both Salmon and Sturgeon did. Or they can run a collegiate shop along the collective lines of the Politburo, as Jack McConnel did. Unfortunately, Humza did neither.

While Alex Salmond had been gallus enough to thole some character in his cabinet, Nicola Sturgeon did not. Fixated with control, she did the opposite to the Ronald Reagan approach—pick good people who know their staff and stay a figurehead out of their way. Instead, she picked loyalty and political correctness.

Humza was one of those. His steadfast toeing of party lines ensured he survived during any reshuffle. Though he took over the Health brief from Jeane Freeman mid-Covid, his 20 months in the post were undistinguished, with Sturgeon grabbing every media opportunity this offered.

His own opportunity came in February last year when the Sturgeon/Murrel police investigation blew up in the party’s face and he won the subsequent leadership election, trouncing Ash Regan, but not beating Kate Forbes by a decisive enough margin.

He had led a charmed life up to then but at this point things started to go wrong. Any new First Minster gets to select their Cabinet. But not only did Humza expand it to a record number of Cabinet Secretaries (10) and Ministers (18), they were all from his team during his leadership campaign. He did offer Kate Forbes a junior role which she unsurprisingly refused. Because of the SNPs legendary loyalty, nobody noticed the rift.

There followed a year of what can only be described as “bungling”. However well intentioned his “progressive” policies were, they lacked traction with the public. What people noticed was the dripping roast saga of the ferries, the futile attempts to take legal action against Westminster, the worsening NHS waiting times, poorer PISA education ratings, the lack of affordable housing, the slower dualling of the A9. In short, the public image was one of a decent guy out of his depth.

However, bubbling underneath all that was the volcano that erupted this week. The Greens had been in coalition for three years. They are perhaps the most idealistic and ideological of the Holyrood parties, but the Sturgen/Murrel straitjacket had kept them in their box. There had been unrest in SNP ranks over the Green priority placed on the Gender Recognition Bill. Ash Regan defected to Alba because of strong opposition to it. Lorna Slater had proved unable to make the Green flagship container return policy work, at a cost of millions to Scottish businesses. But it was when Mairi McAllan, a 31-year-old with three ministerial jobs under her belt in as many years as an MSP was sent out to announce that the much-vaunted carbon reduction target of 75% by 2030 was to be scrapped that Green anger erupted. 

Whether Humza miscalculated that someone relatively junior could handle such a bombshell, or underestimated the strength of Green reaction does not matter. The point is, he made a bad decision. Patrick Harvie’s public dismissal of the Cass report on puberty blockers stirred further resentment in SNP ranks. Once the Greens called his bluff by announcing a party vote on whether the coalition should continue, he was on the back foot.

This demanded some kind of action on his part to regain control of the narrative. So, he called an extraordinary Cabinet meeting at Bute House on Thursday April 25th. It could not have gone far before the two Green ministers stalked out, presumably having been told that their heavy influence on the agenda was being lightened.

It should have been obvious that Tories and/or Labour would put down a motion of no confidence, as was that angry Greens would support it. The result is daily headlines, even in the London media, his jaiket hings by a shoogly nail.

The arithmetic is not propitious for Humza. In theory, he has 63 SNP MSPs backing him. His opposition consists of:

  • Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party – 31 MSPs, Party leader – Douglas Ross
  • Scottish Labour – 22 MSPs, Party leader – Anas Sarwar
  • Scottish Green Party – 7 MSPs, Party leaders – Patrick Harvieand Lorna Slater
  • Scottish Liberal Democrats – 4 MSPs, Party leader – Alex Cole-Hamilton
  • Alba Party – 1 MSP, Party leader – Ash Regan
  • The129th MSP has no Party Affiliation as the Presiding Officer – Alison Johnstone

In the quite possible event of a 64-64 tie, she would have a casting vote, with the heavy compulsion of tradition to cast it for the status quo. In that case, Humza would win and, technically, survive. But that only happens if Ash Regan (whom he dismissed as “a trifling loss” when she defected to Alba) is persuaded to support him. There are four other scenarios:

  1. At meetings this weekend, Humza persuades one of the three unionist opposition parties to at least abstain. Chances of this? 5%-to-HellFreezesOver
  2. He kisses and makes up with the Greens by re-accepting their key policies. Chances of this: 10-20—plus a certain SNP revolt to scupper him anyway.
  3. Colleagues do the dirty on him. There are plenty of disaffected SNP MSPs who railed under the Sturgeon cabal and are equally miffed at how Kate Forbes and her supporters were treated. Chances of this: 10-20%
  4. He accepts he made misjudgements and falls on his sword. Chances of this: 5%-to-HellFreezesOver. He is a golden boy whom fate has yet to teach fallibility.

While any forecast is fraught with imponderables, the smart money should go on the hung vote when everyone shows up, votes as whips dictate, and Ash throws him a lifeline.

As many, including Alex Salmond have pointed out, she is, in what the Americans call “the cat bird seat”. She can extract much from Humza in exchange for her single vote, without which or a miracle, he is doomed. She has written to him, making those demands clear. If he has any sense, he’ll accept.

But what if, with the wily Alex Salmond behind her, she is playing a longer game? What if, thanks to her, he survives and is deluded enough to think he can carry on as leader?

He might last to this year’s General Election. Whether he does or not, the men in grey kilts (in Mike Russel’s timeless phrase) will be at his door no later than the aftermath of losing several dozen Westminster seats to Labour, mostly around Glasgow.

The weakening of the progressive faction in the SNP could well be the trigger for a swing to the broader policy base of the bulk of the SNP. Whether this would be as radical as a return of Alex Salmond to his third stint as party leader is doubtful. Kate Forbes has been lying low and is unsullied by events. As leader, she will restore the party’s traditional broad church. And Ash will have been her Queenmaker.

The unfortunate thing is, Kate will be facing a decade in the wilderness before a broad enough spectrum of voters trust them not to fixate on non-mainstream policies, as Pied Piper Humza has led the present government to do.

“Independence for Scotland, protecting the dignity, safety and rights of women and children, and providing a competent government for our people and businesses across Scotland remain my priorities.”—Ash Regan MSP, letter to Humza Yousaf, April 26th 2024

#1110—1,245 words

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Happy Birthday, England!

Posted on April 23, 2024 by davidsberry

Today is St George’s Day’ But it is a sad fact that few other countries ignore their national day as pointedly as the English. Greeks are fierce in celebrating March 26th the anniversary of liberation from Turkish rule; Americans make 4th of July into a fireworks-charged celebration; ten days later the French mark Bastille Day; an amazing number of non-Irish don the green with the Irish themselves to celebrate St Paddy. 

Why not the English?

More malicious commentators (such as this blog) argue that it’s their own fault. By having a history whose glory was founded on empire, the passage of that empire over half a century ago has failed to find a cohesive substitute. The Commonwealth may remain a force for good, but it does pivot around England as top dog, the way the empire did. The attempt to find a role within Europe shattered on NBoris and his Brexit buddies. The “special relationship” with the USA is as delusional as the “Auld Alliance” with France was for Scotland half a millennium ago..

England’s identity problem dates from over 300 years ago. After a troublesome century that included a civil war, five enforced changes of Head of State, a plantation of Ireland, Jacobite rebellion and sundry religious wars and persecution, the English parliament was understandably looking for peace and stability. After the disastrous Darien expedition of the late 17th century had drained much of Scotland capital, it was a matter of opportunity and expediency to pay the largely aristocratic members of the Scottish parliament to vote themselves out of existence in 1707.

“The Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of Scotland are hereby united into one Kingdom by the name of Great Britain”—Union with Scotland Act, 1706

But, instead of acknowledging the equal nature of two states coming together in a union, the terms were to add 45 Scottish seats to the existing 513 English  in the House of Commons and 16 Scottish peers (but no clergy) to the Hours of Lords. Virtually nothing else changed; it remained the English parliament in all but name.

This attitude was compounded by two further Jacobite rebellions and ongoing unrest in Ireland that convinced many people that England was the civilised core, while little distinguished the rest of Britain from colonies like Virginia or Jamaica—except that they were more trouble and less profitable. The result was a couple of centuries of “Scottish cringe”, during which Scottish nobility learned cut-glass accents to fit in “down South’, and generations of Scottish schoolkids had their ears boxed for daring to speak the vernacular.

That said, when Enlightenment and Industrial Revolution elevated Scots from peripheral poverty to globe-spanning riches in the Union which had swept French ambition aside over the next hundred years bore fruit. Both countries shared the spoils of the Pax Britannica, dominating the world over the following century. Nobody took umbrage at the backsliding restoration of “England” as ruler of the pink-painted fifth of the globe. But as the pink was painted out, the word “British” lost its lustre too.

“England expects every man to do his duty.”—Admiral Nelson at Trafalgar, October 1805

Nelson’s final signal gave scant national offense to 40 Scots among the battle-hardened tars below decks on HMS Victory. But the implication they might not do their duty did.

The first half of the 19th century was the era of integration as Scots tried to rebrand themselves as “North British”. Walter Scott orchestrated George IV’s garish tartan visit; streets were named after Melbourne, Pitt and Palmerston; Victoria fell in love with Deeside. But the once-wild Scots making themselves appear harmless just reinforced pseudo-colonial attitudes in London where “England” remained in common usage when referring to the United Kingdom.

This is hardly surprising. Much of the burgeoning wealth and power concentrated there. Blake’s “Jerusalem” became a stirring anthem for the UK as a whole. It was more than the Greenwich meridian that made London the centre of the world. Other countries refer to the UK as Angleterre…Inglaterra…Anglia. The parliament at Westminster remains de facto the English parliament, dominated by 533 English MPs. Should the other 59 Scottish, 40 Welsh and 18 Irish sever to find common cause, it could be massively outvoted.

The monolithic two-party system at Westminster rather clouds this issue, but since the Irish were hived off in 1922, we have lived a century where London remained the centre of its shrinking imperial world, with England its bailiwick.  Whether discussing immigration or train strikes, water companies or Brexit, the debates are actually bout England but treated as if they were about Britain.

It is not just government that operates like this. BBC’s Radio 4 is supposedly UK-wide, but sounds like English National Radio. Cricket is treated as a major sport, with the Middlesex CC’s 160-year tenure of Lords treated as a national event. After the Jubilee and Elizabeth lines came Crossrail and now a debate about Heathrow’s third runway. Are any of these really UK issues?

The confusion arises because of deft consensus among all parties that “Britain” is the only word to be used. Yet the elephant in the room is the lopsided setup of the British state. Of the UK’s 67 million people, 56 million live in England. The other 11 million have three parliaments discussing their needs. But 84% of the British population has no such parliament, dedicated to their needs. Yet the UK parliament must find time between helping Ukraine, pacifying Gaza, dealing with global warming, etc. to worry about social crises, or declining education— issues immediately relevant to England. No wonder its eye drifts off the ball and the English feel hard-done-by.

No wonder England is now confused and anguishing about its identity. Sassenachs should be out celebrating your Englishness today. Tomorrow, berate your MP for doing two jobs badly. Tell him/her: England should have its own parliament—just like the Scots.

“There is no separate Parliament for England and it’s because devolution was more a case of making a bad arrangement less worse than trying to do it properly.”—Stephen Mawhinney

#1109—1,005 words

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Car-Borne Capture

Posted on April 20, 2024 by davidsberry

The Scottish Green Party are hopping mad that the Scottish Government, in which they are a partner, have abandoned their goal of reaching a 75% cut in carbon emissions by 2030. The move was triggered by a damning report from an independent committee tasked with tracking such things.

“The 2030 target is no longer credible because of inadequate action in areas including home heating, transport and farming.”—UK Climate Change Committee (CCC), March 2024

“We accept the CCC’s recent re-articulation that this parliament’s interim 2030 target is out of reach.”—Màiri McAllan Cabinet Secretary for Wellbeing Economy, Net Zero and Energy, April 18th 2024

The move is a significant climbdown from a government which was one of the first in the world to declare a climate emergency.

Màiri McAllan was elected to the Scottish Parliament in 2021 representing Clydesdale. She was appointed Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero and Just Transition in March 2023, then as Cabinet Secretary for Wellbeing Economy, Net Zero and Energy two months ago.In her role, the Scottish Government says she is supported by three colleagues:

  • Gillian Martin as Minister for Energy, Just Transition and Fair Work
  • Lorna Slater as Minister for Green Skills, Circular Economy and Biodiversity
  • Patrick Harvie Minister for Zero Carbon Buildings, Active Travel and Tenants’ Rights

Readers may be bewildered by this proliferation of titles that weave ministerial responsibilities across what might seem logical boundaries. But First Minister Yousaf has taken what was once a penetrable structure under six Cabinet Secretaries and exploded them into no fewer 28 ministerial posts.

The cross-cutting thinking that seems to be behind these interwoven titles appear to have run foul of the politician’s foibles of ambition, mistrust, and empire-building. The result is an absence of joined-up thinking and a corresponding dearth of real action. Addressing climate change requires a spectrum of co-operation right across government. This does not appear to be happening.

Consider transportation as an example. The Greens and several councils have a hostile attitude to motorists, praise public transport and subsidise a myriad of train services, bus routes and ferries. But in the 17 years since the SNP formed the Scottish Government, there have been nine Transport Ministers and a dearth of joined-up thinking.

Transport is Scotland’s biggest contributor to climate change, emitting over a quarter of all our greenhouse gas emissions. Within this, the largest share of transport emissions comes from cars, accounting for 38%. While car use in thinly populated rural areas may remain essential, countering overwhelming use of private cars in cities means making public transport an easy and cheap way to move around. Following sterling examples set by Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Munich, etc. would render carbon targets achievable.

Meantime, despite Newspeak press releases emanating from a long succession of transport ministers the level of transport cohesion in any of Scotland’s six main cities is risible.

  1. Edinburgh The second-most popular tourist destination in the UK boasts the most tourists passing through its main station: Waverley. Most of the city’s 50+ bus routes pass nearby. But they are scattered over a dozen nearby stops accessed through one of the five exits from the station. Accessing the tram involves five escalators and a 300m walk. So does the airport bus since it was thrown off Waverley Bridge and taxis banished to the nether regions of New Street. In the station itself, there is no information to find them. Visitors from Europe think all this rather third-world.
  2. Glasgow Whether at Central or Queen Street, bus information on buses on adjacent streets does not exist, nor does the obvious need for a link over the half mile between the two. And, through Queen Street boasts a subway access, Central has none.
  3. Dundee Since the area was revamped, the station sits on an island surrounded by multi-lane traffic. It is easier and more obvious to get to the V&A Dundee than to find local buses on Marketgate, in the city centre, 1/2km away across two main roads.
  4. Perth has the magnificent ex-Caledonian station. This is 100m from the bus station. Trouble is, both are a half-mile along South Street to the city’s heart St John’s Square
  5. Aberdeen also has a fine station and, like Perth, is close to the bus station. But it is located 300m south of Union Street, where the local buses run. There is a way to get there, involving a car park, a stairway, and a mall, but it is kept “secret”.
  6. Inverness also has a nearby long-distance bus station. But the way to get there involves Platform 7, a gap in a fence and another car park. Tourists never find it.

But the bitter icing on this almost inedible cake is the lack of integration among modes of transport. Our European neighbours cracked this one half a century ago when Munich rolled all its transport under a single ticket in time for the 1972 Olympics. Even London got its act together a quarter century ago with the Oyster card.

But Scotland? Well, there is the National Entitlement Cards. A significant slice of the population uses these to access public transport. As a result, all buses and train stations have had to be equipped with readers.

But they are available only to under-26’s, pensioners, and those with disabilities. These are not the people driving private cars who need to be lured onto public transport. So, rather than dreaming up idealistic wheezes like container recycling or 75% carbon reduction, what if the Scottish Government were to threaten the Transport Minster with her jotters if she didn’t roll out a Scottish Oyster in two years and properly integrate train and bus within four?

#1109—946 words

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Beyond Culloden

Posted on April 16, 2024 by davidsberry

“How can I be a traitor when England is foreign to me?”

—William Wallace

Exactly 278 years ago today the last battle fought on the British mainland saw Jacobite forces under Charles Edward Stuart suffer defeat at the hands of a British army under the command of Prince William Augustus, the Duke of Cumberland. It took place on Drumossie Moor, east of Inverness. What led up to 16 April 1746 was tragic, but what followed even more so.

Ever since the two kingdoms each coalesced over a thousand years ago, the relationship between Scotland and England had been fraught. After subduing Wales, Edward I almost succeeded in subjugating Scotland tooo. But, after reasserting independence at Bannockburn in 1314, the border rolled back and forth in a succession of raids and warfare for three centuries.

Peace came (in theory) with the 1603 Union of the Crowns. But the the Reformation in the previous century had divided Scots more than the English. Their austere brand of Calvinism in the English-speaking Lowlands underscored a cultural divide with Gaelic-speaking Highlanders.

These differences were subsumed by dissatisfaction with an autocratic Stuart dynasty that culminated in the English Civil War. The collapse of the Commonwealth soon after Cromwell’s death briefly restored control to mor incorrigible Stuarts until the “Glorious Revolution” set the staunchly Protestant William of Orange on the throne. This set the scene for a series of Jacobite rebellions, the most famous of which, was “The’45”, which came closest to succeeding.

Under “Bonnie Prince Charlie”, an army of mostly Catholic Jacobite highlanders reached Derby, causing government panic, a burning of papers and possible evacuation. But Jacobite nerve broke, and the retreat North led to Culloden. Most accounts end with the battle, with the 2,000 Jacobite, and 300 government casualties. However, the real tragedy was the aftermath; the demise of a culture that had evolved from Ulster to Dalriada to the Lords of the Isles.

The morning after the battle, Cumberland issued a declaration to his troops claiming the rebels had been instructed to give no quarter. This was untrue. Over the next two days, the moor was searched and wounded rebels were put to death. Prisoners were taken south to England to stand trial for high treason, many being crammed into hulks on the Thames to await trial. High-ranking “rebel lords” were executed on Tower Hill.

To address the religious disparity the British government enacted laws to further integrate the Highlands, with the Protestant, English-speaking bulk of Britain. Episcopalian ministers were drafted North to extract oaths of allegiance to the Hanoverian dynasty, rather than any “King over the Water”. Those Lords who had remained loyal to the government were compensated for any loss.

But no matter how repressed and abused the Highlanders may have been in retribution, the most longstanding action that doomed the Highland culture was depriving them of their livelihood. Their wealth was measured in beasts, primarily the shaggy, long-horned highland cattle that survived the poor pasture and harsh winters. In the months that followed, over 20,000 head of livestock, sheep, and goats were driven South and sold at auction. None of the proceeds came back to their original owners. A 1746 Act even banned the wearing of tartan, although most highlanders had little else to wear.

This impoverished not just the clans, but the clan chiefs themselves. Those clan chiefs who had been “out” supporting the Jacobite rebellion were stripped of their estates. These were then sold and the profits used to further trade and agricultural improvements, mostly elsewhere.

But the harshest regime on these forfeit estates came not from the new owners, but from factors (professional managers) sent to manage them. Many were lowlanders with neither sympathy, nor understanding for the people put in their charge. Through diligent cultivation and hard work, clans could eke a living from their unpromising glens. But the factors wanted more. In increasing numbers, they evicted tenants and replaced them with more profitable “four-footed clansmen”: sheep.

Men enlisted in the much-feared highland regiments that fought in the Napoleonic Wars. Families gathered at the coast, making what living they could from fishing and gathering kelp. Most gave up this hardscrabble existence and took their chances in the colonies, large groups settling in Nova Scotia, Patagonia, Georgia, Australia, where some Gaelic remains spoken to this day.

There is little doubt that the feudal system of Highland clans would have had to adapt to modern life at some point. But the brutality of the Highland Clearances that followed on from Culloden meant that little survives that is authentic. Sir Walter Scott bears much of the blame. When George IV was the first British monarch to visit Scotland in two centuries, he made a pageant using the trappings of the now-harmless highlanders. Tailors have had a field day ever since inventing tartans no genuine teuchter would recognise. The Great Pipes were dragooned into military marching bands and the great pibroch laments forgotten.

Worst of all, the largely English regiments sent along General Wade’s new military roads that linked Forts William, Augustus and George with the civilised South found impoverished people speaking incoherently put the officers in mind of any other colony where the Raj was busy: making the world England”.

It is the origin of the disparaging way some people speak of the mean-minded tightness of the Scots and the London-centric superiority of the English upper classes—so much so that, within 50 years of Culloden the remaining Scots nobility—including Highland chiefs—were all speaking cut-glass Oxford English and indistinguishable from their southern peers.

However, the attempt to roll Scotland into a homogenous state by calling emerging companies “North British” and the streets of Edinburgh after prominent Englishmen rather foundered on the reluctance of the English to consider themselves “South British” or name anything in the imperial capital after anyone from the colonies. Althugh the 1707 Union was billed as a merger of equals. But the fact that only 59 of the 650 seats in the Commons come from Scotland means its voice is drowned out. The impotence of having 76%of those 59 being held by parties seeking independence makes a travesty of a union of equals and is an affront to democracy.

All of which goes a long way to explain the current independence movement, pushing towards 50% of those living in Scotland and why unionism languishes in a minority.

#1108—1,080 words

Memorial at Culloden is an Unwitting Metaphor of Cultural Attitudes After the Battle
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Greek Dra(ch)mas

Posted on April 5, 2024 by davidsberry

Many British feel dismissive toward the economies of “sun holiday” countries like Greece. There, food and wine are cheap and siestas hamper productivity. It is true that Greece has had a chequered financial past. This included periods of right-wing military dictatorship (1967 1974) and experimental socialism, when the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK)won a landslide victory in 1981.

We all know about the serious Greek debt crisis originating from heavy government spending. This escalated over the years, due to a slowdown in global economic growth. However, when Greece became the 10th member of the European Union (EU) in 1981, the country’s economy and finances were still in good shape.

Prior to 1999, the country continued to have a respectable debt-to-GDP ratio of less than 60%, plus a budget deficit below 3% of GDP. In 2001, Greece forsook the drachma and joined the Eurozone, adopting the € (Euro) as its common currency.  

Their policies took advantage of Greek membership of the Eurozone, calculating that they could increase government expenditure on benefits and early pensions without worrying about devaluation of the currency, as the larger Eurozone members would sustain its value. This fiscal profligacy, was seen as wasteful and excessive expenditure, as it caused deficits and debt levels to explode.

The fiscal jig was up for Greece shortly after the financial crisis of 2007-2008, as investors and creditors focused on the colossal sovereign debt loads. With default a real possibility, investors began demanding much higher yields for sovereign debt issued by Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain (the so-called “PIIGS”) to counter this added risk.

The final nail in the coffin came in 2009, when a new Greek government led by Papandreou’s son George came into power and revealed that the fiscal deficit was 12.7%, more than twice the previously disclosed figure, throwing the Greek the debt crisis into a higher gear.

Up until then, the sovereign debt risk for those countries had been camouflaged by their wealthy neighbours in the north, such as Germany. By January 2012, however, the yield spread between 10-year Greek and German sovereign bonds widened by a whopping 3,300 basis points. As Greece’s economy contracted in the aftermath of the crisis, the debt-to-GDP ratio skyrocketed, peaking at 180% in 2011.

Alexis Tsipras, a self-identified democratic socialist, had become leader of the restyled Syriza socialist party in 2008. On his promise to ease the stringent conditions placed on Greece by the EU to deal with its debt, Syriza went on to win both the 2015 and 2019 elections.

A decade later Greece’s economy still had not fully recovered, due to disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. While the last official round of financial bailout support had been made to Greece in 2018.

Nonetheless, the austerity measures imposed worked. In 2023, Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio was down to 160.2%, and it still had until the year 2060 to fully pay off those debts. And, despite this burden, Greece has achieved a high standard of living, ranking 32 out of all countries, according to the World Bank.

As of 2024, Greece now has a GDP-per-capita around $24,500,.

Greece is expected to enjoy economic growth once again in 2024. Strong tourism activity, against a backdrop of high inflation, is boosting tax revenue. The sharp drop in the unemployment rate below 10%, the drastic improvement in public finances and the decline in public and private debt testify to Greece experiencing solid recovery. This is confirmed by the rise in equity and bond markets, and by the sharp tightening of spreads between Greek sovereign debt and the German Bund. 

The rebound in post-COVID activity has enabled the Greek government to combine economic growth and fiscal consolidation. As a result, the country has weathered the successive shocks in Europe in recent years very well. In the third quarter of 2023, real GDP was more than 6% above 2019, which is double the figure for the Eurozone (3.0%). 

In 2024, economic activity is expected to benefit from the recent labour market recovery and the fall in inflation, which, after peaking at 12% in summer 2022, fell back to 3.5% in December 2023. Short- and medium-term trends thus remain encouraging and growth is expected to stay above 2% in 2024, according to the European Commission’s forecast.

The improvement in public accounts is one of the most noteworthy underlying dynamics in Greece. After posting a primary deficit of 10% of GDP at the height of the Eurozone crisis, Greece recorded a primary budget surplus of 0.1% in 2022. This surplus widened in 2023—from €3.7 billion to €6.3 billion. Despite rising interest rates, the turnaround in the government accounts will reduce public debt. The Greek government also intends to use some of its cash reserves to repay in advance nearly €16 billion of its debt to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), which will help accelerate debt reduction.

After retaining an absolute majority in the Greek Parliament, Kyriákos Mitsotákis and his New Democracy party emerged strengthened from the 2023 elections. He intends to continue the privatisation programme aiming to reduce government debt. Despite falling sharply over the past two years, Greece’s debt ratio is still the highest in Europe. His measures, aimed at rebalancing the public accounts and liberalising the economy, have reassured markets and reduced the risk premium on Greek sovereign bonds. The spread between Greek and German rates has narrowed to just 100 basis points.

For comparison, the UK (pop. 66.96 million) has a GDP of £3,089 billion, a sovereign debt of £2,654 billion, growing at a rate of £156 billion each year. This contrast with Greece (pop. 10,46 million), with a GDP of £174.1 billion has sovereign debt of £312.8 billion, being reduced at a rate of £5.4 billion each year.

Put another way, every Brit’s debt of £40,212 is rising by £2,364 each year, while every Greek’s debt is a quarter less at £29,882, and falling by £516 each year.

#1107—981 words

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Free-for-All Freeports

Posted on April 1, 2024 by davidsberry

Whatever their political preferences, most people in Britain accept that the economy is underperforming and that living standards have not materially improved in over a decade. A major policy initiative from Westminster to address this, and thereby level up the worsening disparity of wealth across Britain was to introduce Freeports and Special Economic zones (SEZs). There are currently 12 Freeports, two of which (Cromarty and Forth) are in Scotland, plus 74 SEZs, eight of which lie in Scotland. SEZs are smaller and generally focussed on a particular industry. We will therefore focus on the larger, broader freeports.

The intent of these, as the UK Ship of State charts a fresh new course, is that our economy might prosper from mercantile individualism away from former friends across Europe. Their founding principle is to foster enterprise and investment by removing business disincentives. Each freeport will have access to £25m in seed capital. To quote the UK Government:

“Freeports are new hubs for global trade, investment, and innovation within the UK that create favourable opportunities for businesses growth.”

—UK Department for Business & Trade

Their advantages include a reduction in regulation, avoidance of customs restrictions, access to public seed money and lighter tax burdens. The tax reliefs available in Freeports located in Scotland:

  • Land and Buildings Transaction Tax relief 
  • Enhanced capital allowances for investment in both plant & machinery and structures & buildings 
  • Five years of non-domestic rates relief
  • Employer National Insurance contributions relief

Given the general animosity between Holyrood and Westminster, many would think the Scottish Government might oppose the introduction of freeports and SEZs on their bailiwick. Not a bit of it.

“I very much welcome the resumption of joint working between the Scottish and UK Governments, on a partnership basis, to tailor the UK’s freeports programme to the Scottish policy context.”

—Kate Forbes, Cabinet Sec for Finance & the Economy, letter to Michael Gove, 15 February 2022

With little fanfare and scant media interest, these plans have been forging ahead under the enthusiastic guidance of Michael Gove, who regards them as a major vessel to carry his levelling-up brief to successful completion.

“Freeports have attracted £2.9bn of investment and created 6,000 jobs since they were established in 2022. All this investment is from the private sector.”

—Levelling-up Secretary speaking to the Business & Trade Committee, 10 Ja. 2024

However, there would appear to be a reef or two not marked on government charts, but recognised as such by those concerned about cavalier use of public money and especially the independistas who want to jump ship from the British state.

Even the more astute observers of UK politics may now think that our only view of Brexit is in the rear-view mirror. For good or ill, Britain left the EU three years ago and even most remailers consider the matter done and dusted. Certainly, that is what the UK Government and hard-line Brexiteers, such as Jacob Ress-Mogg, Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, would have us all believe.

Those reefs in the water ahead deriving from freeports are fourfold:

  1. Autonomy: These freeports are being constructed as states within a state, where many laws and regulations will not apply
  2. Governance: will be in the hands of private corporations, some with little or no transparency and Democratic involvement is minimal
  3. Future Impact: Their setup is likely to scupper any attempt by an independent Scotland, or even the UK, seeking to re-enter the EU
  4. Precedent: attempts to establish freeports have, to date, not been encouraging

Regarding autonomy, freeports make UK jurisdictions start to look like a Russian doll. Each of Scotland’s two freeports (Cromarty and Forth) stretch over a radius of 45 km from their centres. Business and trade laws may well differ from each other and from the rest of the country. This may include control of trade unions, or health and safety.

Freeport governance operates under a ‘Governmental Authority’. The Scottish Government has approved exclusive Labour representation on Forth—Cllrs Cammy Day (Edinburgh), Alan Nimmo (Falkirk) and Altary Craig (Fife). This partial oversight of such bodies sits poorly against democratic principles. Secrecy allows controlling firms to onshore their tax avoidance. Forth. Ports controls five other ports in the UK. It is a subsidiary of Otterports, already registered in the Cayman Islands to minimise tax.

Of more importance to future Scottish independence, freeports may scupper any hope of re-joining the EU. Although freeports exist in the EU, they are exclusively publicly owned. Those in the UK are not, which contradicts EU law and would invalidate any attempt to join. On 31st December, this was exacerbated by Jacob Rees-Mogg’s Retained EU Law (REUL) bill, which came into effect. It scrapped 600 EU laws in food safety, employment rights and environment, making any future harmonisation problematic, at best.

The precedence for these freeports does not auger well. Thatcher tried to set up 11 in the 1980s but was thwarted by the EU law requiring public ownership, mentioned above. Professor Paul Romer of Stanford (mentor to Rishi Sunak) tried to set up a freeport along these lines in Honduras, Central America. It was struck down by their Supreme Court as violating the sovereignty of the people in the zone chosen. The Honduran government is now being sued for $11 billion—one third of the entire GDP.

Worst of all is the precedent set by the UK Government’s flagship freeport on Tesside. Ben Houchen, the Tory metro mayor of Tees Valley, is accused of presiding over a redevelopment deal that left the taxpayer seriously out of pocket. Teesworks is the company developing the freeport was handed 110 acres of public land for £1 an acre. This tripled Teesworks’ profits. Teesworks is 90% owned by “friends and close associates” of Houchen’s, after the public body, South Tees Development Corporation, handed 40% of shares over for free. Far from the “£25m in seed capital” Teessport has already swallowed £500 million in public funds…and counting.

Gove has, under pressure, finally accepted the need for an inquiry into all this but has refused to say when it will report.

“It’s disappointing to hear that this report is being delayed. People deserve answers to these questions in full and as soon as possible.”

— Cllr. Chris McEwan, Labour candidate for Tees Valley Mayor

The whole point of Brexit was to set up an equivalent to “Singapore on Thames”. This is what the UK did in Hong Kong in 19th century—make up the rules to achieve maximum gain from the natives. Only, the natives living and working around Cromarty or Forth may well suffer similar degraded conditions and absence of any voice. Exit from the EU has allowed a “flexible” (i.e. Wild West) approach to employment conditions and scrutiny of practices.

“EU freeports are unsuitable for the UK economy.”

—UK Govt. REUL report, January 2024

Post-Brexit, things defaulted to WTO rules, freeing government to provide State Aid to any company they chose. This creates a non-level playing field and distorts markets, which is anathema to the EU, as it disrupts the integrity of their Single Market.

“The freeports being set up are future-proofed.”

—UK Govt. REUL report, January 2024

This last statement is delusional. As the UK has no constitution, no government can bind a future government, which may rescind or modify laws or regulations already made. This also applies to an independent Scotland.

See the TNT Show, with John Drummond interviewing David Powell on this matter at:

#1106—1,239 words

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